Mandan, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

860
FXUS63 KBIS 150544
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1244 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of fog and drizzle tonight.

- Warming back up to near or slightly above normal temperatures
  mid to late week.

- Periods of rain through Friday, with a few thunderstorms
  possible mainly late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
  night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Further expanded fog and drizzle mentions into the north
central through Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 1003 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

No significant changes for the late evening update. Added patchy
drizzle earlier this evening. Widespread low stratus areas of fog
and patchy drizzle will continue tonight. Late tonight low rain
chances move into southwest North Dakota.

UPDATE
Issued at 808 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Drizzle has developed over south central ND. By looking at
radar, it`s definitely filled in around Bismarck and a case
could be made for patchy drizzle north to around Minot, east to
Jamestown and west to Glen Ullin. For now to make it a little
simpler, added patchy drizzle wherever we have fog mentioned. It
may not extend that far west but so be it. In the southwest
where we have slight chance to chance pops approaching late
tonight, ended the drizzle when the pops arrive. Otherwise no
changes at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Rain has exited the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few sprinkles or some patchy drizzle through the night though.
Main forecast change was to bump sky cover through the night and
all of Wednesday. The far, far southwest could see a bit of sun
yet this afternoon, otherwise expect low status and some areas
of fog tonight an through the day Wednesday. Wouldn`t be
surprised if some areas didn`t see the sun again until late in
the work week, or possibly the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Water vapor imagery shows an upper level wave moving across the
main flow of the jet stream bringing in widespread showers to
the northeastern half of the state. Precipitation chances will
continue to diminish this afternoon as this system moves to the
northeast. Satellite imagery is showing a layer of low stratus
that has formed across the state. This low stratus will likely
linger across the area into tomorrow. As a result of lower
stratus and lighter winds out west could lead to patchy to
areas of fog across the southwest mainly, but could leak into
the south central. Winds will likely remain elevated enough to
hinder widespread fog formation. Low temperatures tonight will
warm above freezing north to the lower 40s in the south due to
low stratus trapping radiational heat. High temperatures
tomorrow are forecast to warm into the 50s across the state.
Majority of the day will remain overcast.

Forecast models have the upper low located over CA`s Central
Valley moving up into the intermountain west. This pattern will
continue the upper level southwesterly flow across the Northern
Plains. Late tomorrow another upper level wave is going move up
from the the Rockies into southwestern North Dakota. Thus,
leading to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms late
tomorrow. Precipitation chances will continue through the end of
the work week as the aforementioned upper level low progress
into the Northern Plains. Temperatures will remain fairly
regulated in the 50s this week. The highest probability for
rain remains out west where the NBM has around a 50-70 percent
chance of half an inch of rain in the southwest by Thursday.
Rain is forecast to be widespread across central and western
North Dakota Thursday into Friday. In addition a tight surface
pressure gradient will bring breezy to windy conditions as this
upper low pass through the region. Temperatures are forecast to
warm up this weekend as the upper level pattern transitions to a
ridge by early next week with an active pattern following the
upper level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Areas of fog and drizzle are expected through Wednesday morning,
along with IFR/LIFR ceilings across most of the state. Ceilings
may improve to MVFR levels at times during the day Wednesday,
but are expected to drop right back down during the evening
hours. Other than drizzle, light to moderate rain is expected
to enter into southwestern ND late tonight and expand across at
least the western half of the state through the day Wednesday,
and then across the rest of the state Wednesday night.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Telken